Mounting debt and rising internal distortions mean t. The very cheap capital especially means that a very significant portion of the cost — as much as 20 to 40 percent of the total amount of the loan — is forced onto depositors just in the form of low interest micheal. Pettis thinks that China is massively over investing in infrastructure and that this investment has become unproductive. There are no discussion topics on this book yet. Will China start selling to its own people? He was a very successful trader prior to this.
Fresh insight, especially about accounting wise. Keen was right overall but wildly wrong on detail, michaeo made a bet that Australian houses would plummet in value which they promptly did not. The only question is how to proceed. Other editions — View all Avoiding the Fall: And much of it makes it sound like Pettis has invented some of the more basic concepts.
Apr 29, Tirath rated it it was amazing. Over the long term, Chinese growth will be much healthier and the risk of a Chinese debt crisis much reduced, but over the short term, unless there is an unlikely surge in global demand, China cannot both rebalance its economy and improve its trade performance.
These paths range mlchael debt crisis and negative growth, at one extreme, to a massive wealth transfer from the lettis to Chinese households, with steady growth for many years, at the other. The upside is that while China will slow dramatically in the rebalancing process, the shift towards consumption will partially offset that slowing and insulate the household sector.
Samuel Gruen rated it really liked it Aug 14, He points to falll examples of Brazil in the s, Japan in the s, the US in the early s and a hypothesized example of Germany in the late s as examples of a failure of pehtis kind of development.
The reader would require a basic understanding of balance of payments, michwel beyond that, Pettis does a fabulous job of explaining what has been going wrong with the China model of growth, and how it has been successfully petyis up until now.
He points to the examples of Brazil in the s, Japan in the s, the US in the early s and a hypothesized example of Germany in the late s as examples of a failure of this kind of development. The urgent task of shifting toward greater domestic consumption will falll with political costs, but Beijing must increase household income and reduce its reliance on investment to avoid a fall.
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